Decision Analysis for Management Judgement, 5th Edition

ISBN: 9781118887875, 9781118740736

Decision Analysis for Management Judgement, 5th Edition is unique in its breadth of coverage of decision analysis methods. It covers both the psychological problems that are associated with unaided managerial decision making and the decision analysis methods designed to overcome them. It is presented and explained in a clear, straightforward manner without using mathematical notation.

This latest edition has been fully revised and updated and includes a number of changes to reflect the latest developments in the field.


  • Presents and explains decision analysis methods without using mathematical notation and tools that are beyond the scope of most of the book’s target audience – practicing managers and business students.
  • Rigorous in its presentation of methods – the material is covered in sufficient depth to allow readers to apply methods appropriately and with full knowledge of their rationale, assumptions and limitations.
  • Provides a broad coverage of decision analysis methods.
  • Features topics that are rarely, if ever, found in other textbooks, including explanations of special methods that are designed to handle resource allocation and negotiation problems and a demonstration of how decision analysis can be used in tandem with scenario planning in strategic decision making.
Paul Goodwin
George Wright
Chapter 1 Introduction

Chapter 2 How people make decisions involving multiple objectives

Chapter 3 Decisions involving multiple objectives: SMART

Chapter 4 Decisions involving multiple objectives: alternatives to SMART

Chapter 5 Introduction to probability

Chapter 6 Decision making under uncertainty

Chapter 7 Decision trees and influence diagrams

Chapter 8 Applying simulation to decision problems

Chapter 9 Revising judgements in the light of new information

Chapter 10 Heuristics and biases in probability assessment

Chapter 11 Methods for eliciting probabilities

Chapter 12 Risk and uncertainty management

Chapter 13 Decisions involving groups of individuals

Chapter 14 Resource allocation and negotiation problems

Chapter 15 Decision framing and cognitive intertia

Chapter 16 Scenario planning: an alternative way of dealing with uncertainty

Chapter 17 Combining scenario planning with decision analysis

Chapter 18 Alternative decision-support-systems and conclusions

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E-Text: 9781118887875
Textbook: 9781118740736